Cadem Poll: Kast Leads First Round with 30%, Followed by Jara with 27%

Forgetfulness or Resignation? Chile Repeats Its Mistakes

Posted by Rodolfo Varela

Santiago, July 2025 — The latest Plaza Pública Cadem poll, released this Sunday, reveals a troubling scenario for those concerned about the resurgence of far-right politics in Chile. 

José Antonio Kast rises 3 points to 30% and takes the lead in the first round.

José Antonio Kast, leader of the Republican Party, is currently leading the presidential race with 30% support, surpassing the officialist candidate Jeannette Jara, who holds steady at 27%. Though technically tied, the fact that Kast has gained three points in a single week is significant and shows upward momentum.

Trailing behind are Evelyn Matthei (Chile Vamos) with 14%, Franco Parisi (Party of the People) with 11%, and Johannes Kaiser (National Libertarian Party) with 5%. The list continues with Harold Mayne-Nicholls (2%), Marco Enríquez-Ominami (1%), and Eduardo Artés (1%). Another 9% of respondents are undecided or chose not to answer.

In spontaneous voting intention, Kast also leads with 25%, closely followed by Jara at 24%. Matthei drops to 12%, Parisi to 8%, and Kaiser remains at 5%. A significant 22% remain undecided or provide no answer.

What do these numbers really say?

Beyond the figures, the poll reveals something deeper: a widespread loss of historical memory. In a country that endured nearly two decades of military dictatorship, with its repression, torture, disappearances, and the imposition of a neoliberal model that privatized everything —even retirement— the rise of Kast and other far-right figures is not just political. It reflects a society that has grown accustomed to forgetting. To normalizing injustice. To resignation.

A nation rich in resources but poor in justice and collective memory

Chile remains deeply unequal. Its wealth —in copper, lithium, oceans, energy, and forests— benefits the few, not the many. The AFP pension system, imposed during the dictatorship with right-wing support, still functions as a multi-billion-dollar business. Meanwhile, most retirees struggle to survive on meager pensions that fail to cover basic needs.

This is not a matter of “unmet expectations,” as some claim. It’s a social and humanitarian emergency. And yet, the political debate keeps circling back to the same failed formulas of the past.

But there’s another, more insidious legacy from that era: extreme individualism. Chileans increasingly seem to care only about their own immediate problems —their pension, their salary, their neighborhood's security— without regard for their neighbors, coworkers, or fellow citizens. Solidarity has eroded to the point that many prefer to look the other way rather than acknowledge our shared struggles. Where is the empathy for the worker earning less, for the person without access to healthcare, shelter, or justice?

Boric trapped between Congress and a culture of self-interest

President Gabriel Boric, despite a slight rise in approval (now at 33%, according to Cadem), continues to face a hostile and fragmented Congress —one often more committed to self-preservation than real reform. In this environment, major structural changes such as pension reform or improvements in public healthcare remain stalled or watered down.

We wouldn't be here without the demonstrations,' says Boric

Meanwhile, the same political and economic forces that once defended the dictatorship’s model remain firmly in place —now repackaged with newer faces and modern slogans. Kast is no outsider. He is the direct ideological heir of that legacy. His return to the top of the polls is not just political momentum; it’s a national warning.

Have we really forgotten?

Where is the memory of dictatorship crimes? Of silenced victims? Of broken promises and systemic inequality? Of the 2019 uprising? Of the failed constitutional process?

It seems we’ve grown used to forgetting. Used to voting for the same names, tolerating corruption, and believing inequality is just part of life. Chile, a country with every resource needed to thrive in justice and dignity, has been reduced to a place where wealth is hoarded, rights are conditional, and solidarity is optional.

Final thoughts

Kast’s rise in the polls is not just about this election. It is the clearest sign yet that history repeats itself when we choose not to remember. A country without memory is not just doomed to make the same mistakes —it becomes unable to imagine a different future.